Switzerland 2026: how a poor mountain land became one of the richest — and where the popular story gets it wrong

In 1817 people in eastern Switzerland ate grass. "In eastern Switzerland the starving sometimes had to eat carrion or grass," says the historian Daniel Krämer (Blick, 09.04.2015). A year earlier, in 1816, Europe had no summer — in 1815 the Tambora volcano had erupted in Indonesia. The Historical Dictionary of Switzerland (HDS; in German, HLS) lists 1816–1817 among the famine years documented in writing (HLS, "Hungersnöte").

Two hundred years later Switzerland ranks third by gross domestic product per head among countries with 2025 data — 114,769 US dollars, behind Luxembourg and Ireland (World Bank; Monaco, Liechtenstein and Bermuda have no 2025 figure yet and ranked higher in 2024) — and first by average wealth per adult: 910,382 dollars (UBS Global Wealth Report 2026).

How did that happen? On 15 October 2026 the YouTube channel "Судьбы наций | Анимация" ("Fates of Nations | Animation") published a 13-minute video, "Почему Швейцария богатая, хотя должна быть бедной?" ("Why is Switzerland rich when it should be poor?") (YouTube). Its answer: when Switzerland had nothing, it sold security — first mercenaries' blood, then neutrality, then banking silence, now medicines. The video has no list of sources. We took its 27 factual claims and looked for the original source for each.

The result in brief. Of the 27 claims, 11 are correct, 11 imprecise (the core is right, but a number, cause or superlative is overstated), 4 contain a substantial error, 1 cannot be verified. The full table is at the end.

1817. The video says twice as many Swiss died that year as usual. The Federal Statistical Office (FSO) series has 62,570 deaths in 1817, against an average of about 46,300 a year in 1810–1816 (FSO data). That is roughly 35% more, not double. (The same mistake appeared in swissinfo in 2014, citing the same database.) Mortality may have been higher in some eastern Swiss districts, but we found no regional data.

Nor was the volcano the only culprit. The HLS writes that the famine of 1816–1817 was "partly caused by slumps in the textile industry" (HLS). The climatologist Stefan Brönnimann: "But Tambora was not to blame for all the misery." (NZZ am Sonntag, 01.05.2016)

The village that paid its people to leave. The video tells of a village that in 1855 paid the passage to America for 305 of its residents — more than one in ten. That is true. The village was Niederwil in the canton of Aargau, called Rothrist since 1890. The municipal assembly decided on 12 January 1855; on 27 February the 305 set off via Basel, Paris and Le Havre for New Orleans; it cost about 50,000 francs, which the village borrowed (Aargau heritage office; Swiss National Museum blog). In 1850 the village had 2,620 inhabitants, so about 11.6% left.

What the video leaves out is the main point. The Aargau heritage office writes: "Of the roughly 300 intended emigrants, about half signed up voluntarily; the other half were the so-called 'poorhouse inmates', who received poor relief from the municipality and were put on the emigration lists by compulsion." The HLS, more briefly: the municipality "forced" 300 people to emigrate (HLS, Rothrist). It was not a grant for leavers but, in part, a way of getting rid of the poor.

How many left. The video claims that more than half a million Swiss left the country in the 19th century. We found no source for that. The HLS gives only decade figures for overseas emigration: about 50,000 in 1851–1860, 35,000 each in the 1860s and 1870s, more than 90,000 in 1881–1890 (HLS, "Auswanderung"). For 1851–1900 that adds up to about 250,000 overseas, plus emigration within Europe. Radio SRF gives 400,000 for 1816–1914 without naming a source (SRF).

The video says that around 1500 one Swiss in eight served in a foreign army, that over the centuries about one and a half million went to fight other people's wars, and that 25–40% never came back. All three numbers match almost word for word background text in a 2011 swissinfo article that gives no source (swissinfo, 15.11.2011) — not a piece of research.

The HLS says no reliable total exists. In 1947 Wilhelm Bickel estimated that 0.9–1.1 million Swiss served abroad from the 15th century to 1850, Paul de Vallière as many as 2 million; a later source-critical study (Mattmüller) arrived at a "markedly lower" figure (HLS, "Fremde Dienste"). Moreover, foreigners sometimes made up more than half of a "Swiss" regiment. The HLS measures the proportion differently: in the 16th century "about a third of men over 16 served in foreign service at some point" (HLS, "Auswanderung"). We found no scholarly source for the 25–40% loss rate.

The Guard. The official birthday of the Pontifical Swiss Guard is 22 January 1506, when 150 Swiss under Captain Kaspar von Silenen came to Pope Julius II and received his blessing (vatican.va). The Guard still protects the pope and his residence.

Swiss against Swiss. The video says there were battles in which "two kings" paid the Swiss to kill each other. In substance, yes. At the battle of Malplaquet on 11 September 1709 the Swiss regiments May and Brändle on the French side fought their compatriots in the regiments May and Stürler on the Dutch side; in all the Swiss lost "nearly 8,000 men" (HLS, Malplaquet). Only the other side was not a king but the Dutch Republic.

The video tells how, after a heavy defeat at Marignano in 1515, the Swiss did what hardly anyone dared — stopped expanding and decided to stay out of other people's wars; that was the start of neutrality.

The defeat is a fact: on 13–14 September 1515 King Francis I of France defeated the Confederates, and afterwards the cantons gave up expansion. But on the rest the HLS is blunt: historiography up to the middle of the 20th century "handed down the myth of the 'lesson' supposedly taught to the Confederate cantons in 1515, which had set them on the path of neutrality" (HLS, Marignano). As early as November 1516 the Swiss concluded a "Perpetual Peace" with France, which also provided for "Confederate regiments to be made available to France". So they went on taking part in other people's wars — as paid soldiers. The first official declaration of neutrality by the Tagsatzung (the Confederate diet) dates from 1674 (HLS, "Neutralität").

Neutrality under international law came in 1815. During the Napoleonic wars Switzerland was a battlefield and occupied territory, and, as the HLS writes, "neither France nor the Allies respected Swiss neutrality". On 20 November 1815 in Paris, Austria, France, Great Britain, Prussia and Russia issued the act "recognising and guaranteeing the perpetual neutrality of Switzerland and the inviolability of its territory" (HLS). The HLS links this to the European balance of power that the great powers wanted to secure after Napoleon.

The video says that to get rich Switzerland needed a few lucky breaks. Here is what holds up.

Watches and Calvin. The popular story: in 1541 Calvin banned jewellery in Geneva, and the jewellers switched to watches. The HLS confirms that Calvin issued strict rules against luxury "after 1541" (HLS, "Luxus"). But the HLS article on the watch industry does not mention Calvin at all. It says that the Huguenot refugees who came to Geneva from 1550 "brought great expertise, especially in portable timepieces", which "combined fruitfully with the city's goldsmiths' and silversmiths' craft" (HLS, "Uhrenindustrie"). Calvin's role is a plausible but unproven story.

Geneva's watchmakers' guild was indeed founded in 1601. But it was not "the first in the world", as the video says: a watchmakers' corporation in Paris had statutes as early as 1544 (Futura-Sciences; we have not seen the statute text itself). What can safely be said: the first in Switzerland.

The franc. The video: until 1850 about 8,000 different coins and banknotes circulated. The HLS is more precise: until 1848 a money changer had to know, besides foreign coins, "more than 700 Swiss coin types with about 8,000 different designs" (HLS, "Geldwechsel") — coins, not banknotes. The Federal Coinage Act of 7 May 1850 introduced the franc, equal to the French franc in weight and silver content (HLS, "Franken").

The video also claims that in the 19th century fewer than 15% of the coins in Switzerland were Swiss. We found no source for that figure. The HLS says only that even after 1850 "a large part of the coins circulating in Switzerland were foreign" (HLS, "Münzprägung").

The Gotthard tunnel. The Gotthard railway tunnel, opened in 1882, is about 15 km long (HLS, "Gotthardbahn") and was the longest railway tunnel in the world until the Simplon tunnel of 1906 (Structurae). Officially 177 workers died building it; the historian Konrad Kuoni (1996) puts it at 199 (Binnenkade, p. 53, note 183).

But the video's claim about the strike is wrong. The video: when the workers went on strike, the army opened fire, four were killed. The historian Alexandra Binnenkade, in her 1996 study of the 1875 strike at Göschenen (published by the University of Basel in 2018), writes that regular troops could not be called up so quickly, so the government of the canton of Uri put together a volunteer unit. On 28 July 1875 the first shot was fired by a member of the Göschenen citizens' guard — "nobody had given the order". The army arrived afterwards. "Officially the strike claimed five lives," writes Binnenkade, noting that the literature "only ever speaks of four" (Binnenkade, pp. 11–15). Most of the workers were Italians.

Basel. The video: in 1859 a Basel silk dyer began making the new artificial dyes "just invented in England". The dyer was Alexander Clavel, and he did start making aniline dyes in 1859 — the first in Switzerland (HLS, Clavel). But his dye — fuchsine — was a French invention: in 1858 Emanuel Verguin developed an industrial synthesis of it in France. The English invention was the first synthetic dye, Perkin's mauveine, in 1856 (HLS, "Chemische Industrie"). From Clavel's firm the line runs to Novartis: Bindschedler & Busch (1873) → Ciba (1884) → Ciba-Geigy (1970) → Novartis (1996) (Novartis). Basel's other giant, Roche (1896), did not grow out of dyes — it made medicines from the start (Roche).

The video does not mention two factors the HLS lists among Basel's advantages: until 1907 Switzerland had no patent protection for chemical inventions, so Basel firms could copy foreign products, and the Rhine made it easy to dispose of toxic waste (HLS).

Chocolate. Daniel Peter of Vevey invented the recipe for milk chocolate in 1875 (HLS, Peter). Nestlé's company history says that in 1875 it supplied condensed milk to its "Vevey neighbor, Daniel Peter" (Nestlé). Correct.

The video's conclusion from this part is sound: none of these things needed oil, a port or an empire.

Paris, 1932. The video says that in 1932 France began hunting its tax evaders and Switzerland answered with the 1934 law. In substance, yes. On 27 October 1932 the French authorities searched the Paris office of the Basel bank Basler Handelsbank. The papers found showed that the bank had organised capital flight and tax evasion for wealthy French clients; the list held more than 1,000 names, among them three senators, about twelve generals and two bishops (the historian Sébastien Guex, Business History Review, 2000, pp. 248–249).

The Banking Act of 8 November 1934 came into force on 1 March 1935. Its Article 47 made breaching bank secrecy a crime, with "heavy fines and up to six months' imprisonment" (Guex, p. 244; the federal law database has no digital copy of the original 1934 text, fedlex). Today it carries up to three years in prison, or up to five if the offender gains financially (Banking Act, Art. 47).

Another story is often heard: that bank secrecy was created to protect Jewish refugees' money from Nazi agents. Guex shows that this is a legend — since the late 1960s the most widely spread version, put about by the banks themselves among others. The secrecy article was already in the first draft of the law in February 1933. It was driven by the French affair, German capital-flight laws and bankers' fear that the new banking supervision might leak client data. The video does not repeat this myth.

1940. The video: in June 1940, days after the fall of France, Germany drew up an invasion plan with up to half a million soldiers, and the country was then to be divided by language. The HLS confirms that "from 23 June" Hitler had an attack plan against Switzerland drawn up, "from October 1940 under the code name Operation Tannenbaum" (HLS, "Zweiter Weltkrieg"). The order to attack was never given. As reasons the HLS cites Hitler's preoccupation with the war against Britain and his plans in the East, and the fact that "disagreements between Hitler and Mussolini over a partition of Switzerland" raised the threshold for an attack. Secondary literature gives troop numbers of 300,000 to 500,000 (Angelo Codevilla, 2000; we have not seen the book ourselves), so "half a million" is the upper end of an estimate. We found no primary source for a plan to divide the country specifically by language.

Switzerland's answer was the Réduit — the central Alpine redoubt. General Henri Guisan set out his decision to his commanders on the Rütli meadow on 25 July 1940 (HLS). But Switzerland did not get through the war on mountains alone. According to the HLS, in 1940–1944 84% of Swiss arms and ammunition exports went to the Axis powers — though that was only about 1% of Germany's total output (HLS).

Shelters. The video: a 1963 law required every resident to have a place in a nuclear shelter; today there are about 370,000. A law on shelter construction was indeed passed on 4 October 1963 (fedlex). The motto "a shelter place for every resident" came with the 1971 civil-protection concept (HLS). The number is right: in 2022 Switzerland had about 370,000 shelters with about 9.3 million places for 8.7 million residents — 107% (FOCP, 2023).

Gold. The video says a post-war commission found that the National Bank had taken gold worth about 1.6 billion francs from Germany, and that about three quarters of it was looted. The first part is roughly right; for the second there is no basis in the commission's report. The Independent Commission of Experts Switzerland – Second World War (ICE, the Bergier Commission) found that the Reichsbank sent gold worth 1,678.5 million francs to the Swiss National Bank (SNB). "Of this, the SNB acquired gold for SFr. 1,231.1 million, corresponding to about three fourths of all Reichsbank deliveries during the war" (ICE, gold report, p. 55). So "three quarters" is the SNB's share of the deliveries, not the looted share. The commission gives no single looted share. But its arithmetic shows that a large part was looted: the Reichsbank's real reserves in 1939 were about 1,100 million francs — less than the 1,600–1,700 million sold to Switzerland. So part of the gold could only have come from the reserves of the central banks of occupied countries — Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg. Of the gold taken from victims of the Nazis, just under 120 kg, worth 581,899 francs, reached Switzerland.

The video is right that the bank's management knew early. The commission writes that already in the second half of 1940 the SNB received "the first indications" that gold was being taken both from individuals and from the central banks of occupied countries (ICE final report, p. 250), and that "as early as 1941" those responsible knew Germany had amassed looted gold (ICE). The gold transfers went on until April 1945.

The video says: what made Switzerland rich became its biggest problem, because secrets have a price. It came in four bills.

The first bill: Holocaust victims' accounts. After lawsuits in the US in 1996–1997, UBS and Credit Suisse agreed in principle in August 1998 to pay 1.25 billion dollars. The settlement was signed on 26 January 1999; the case was supervised by Judge Edward R. Korman of the federal court in New York (swissbankclaims.com). The video says more than 450,000 people received money. The Special Masters' final report of 28 March 2019: "more than 458,400 Holocaust victims and heirs worldwide have received nearly $1.285 billion" (Executive Summary). But only about 720 million of that went to account owners or their heirs; the rest went to slave-labour victims, refugees and people whose property was looted. In return, the Swiss banks and the Swiss state were released from all Holocaust-related claims.

The second bill: UBS, 2009. On 18 February 2009 UBS entered into a deferred prosecution agreement with the US Department of Justice and paid 780 million dollars "in fines, penalties, interest and restitution" (DOJ). The video says the bank then "did the unthinkable — handed over client names". More precisely, the Swiss state ordered it. That same day the financial regulator FINMA "ordered" the data of 255 clients to be handed over to the US; in 2011 the Federal Supreme Court ruled this lawful (Federal Supreme Court). The US–Swiss agreement of 19 August 2009 covered about 4,450 further accounts (Federal Office of Justice). We could not fully verify in a primary source the video's figures of "about 20,000 Americans, about 17,000 of whom were hiding money", so we do not repeat them.

The third bill: 2018. At the end of September 2018 Switzerland for the first time automatically sent data on "around 2 million financial accounts" to the EU states and nine other states and territories; Cyprus and Romania were excluded at the time over data security (Federal Council, 05.10.2018).

The fourth bill: Credit Suisse. In the first quarter of 2023 Credit Suisse suffered net asset outflows of 61.2 billion francs — the video's figure is right. In the previous quarter the outflows were even larger, 110.5 billion (CS 1Q23). On 19 March 2023 UBS agreed to buy it for 3 billion francs (UBS). Did the government "force" it? According to UBS, the talks were initiated by the Federal Department of Finance, FINMA and the SNB, and the deal did not need shareholder approval. The parliamentary investigation committee writes that the Federal Council also examined a "forced merger", but it was not used (PUK, 2024).

The video's "state guarantee of up to 200 billion" merges two things. The SNB opened liquidity loans of up to 200 billion francs — of which only 100 billion carried a federal guarantee (SNB). Separately, the government gave UBS a loss guarantee of 9 billion francs (Federal Council). UBS ended all federal guarantees on 11 August 2023; the state made no losses and received about 200 million francs in fees for the guarantees (Federal Council).

Hong Kong. The video says that on 2025 figures Hong Kong overtook Switzerland for the first time as the largest centre for holding foreign money. It did. On 27 May 2026 the consultancy BCG announced: "Hong Kong has overtaken Switzerland for the first time as the world's largest cross-border wealth hub" (BCG). Cross-border wealth booked in Hong Kong rose 10.7% in 2025 to 2.9 trillion dollars. The gap is small: Reuters gave 2.95 against 2.94 trillion (Reuters via Investing.com).

The video's answer: banks were never the whole story. This is where it is strongest.

Pharmaceuticals. Basel is home to Roche (group sales of 61.5 billion francs in 2025, Roche) and Novartis (54.5 billion dollars, Novartis). The video says these are two of the world's ten largest drug companies; industry rankings show that, but the exact position depends on the method, and we could not open the primary ranking table. The video also says medicines alone account for more than a third of Swiss exports. In the 2025 annual report of the Federal Office for Customs and Border Security (FOCBS), exports excluding precious metals, gems, works of art and antiques came to 286.8 billion francs, of which chemicals and pharmaceuticals were 152.2 billion, "53% of total Swiss exports" (FOCBS). Pharmaceuticals alone (antisera and vaccines 57.4 billion, medicines 42.3 billion, pharmaceutical ingredients 18.6 billion) — about 41% (our calculation from the FOCBS figures). The video's claim holds if "medicines" is taken broadly.

Watches: crisis and comeback. On 25 December 1969 Seiko put the Quartz Astron on sale — the first quartz wristwatch on the market (Seiko; IEEE Milestone). Contrary to what the video says, it was not cheap: it was an 18-carat gold watch. Employment in the Swiss watch industry fell from 89,000 (1970) to 33,000 (1985) — according to the employers' association census cited by the historian Pierre-Yves Donzé (Donzé, 2011). That is 2.7 times fewer, not quite three times. In 1983 came Swatch (Donzé).

Vocational training. The State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation (SERI) writes: "About two thirds of young people in Switzerland choose vocational education and training after compulsory school." (SERI, 2025) The direct transition is smaller: in a 2025 survey, half of about 93,000 school leavers went straight into vocational training (SERI).

Direct democracy. In 2026 federal votes take place four times — on 8 March, 14 June, 27 September (official results) and 29 November (admin.ch), and there are cantonal and municipal votes besides. The video's conclusion that this is why there are almost no sharp political swings is an interpretation, not a checkable fact.

The franc. On 15 January 2015 the Swiss National Bank (SNB) discontinued the minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs to the euro and lowered the interest rate on sight deposits above the exemption threshold to −0.75% (SNB). The video says the franc rose about 20% within minutes. In fact, within minutes it was far more: according to news agencies the euro briefly fell to 0.8517 francs that day (Reuters via Daily FT), making the franc about 41% dearer. On the European Central Bank's reference rate, set around 14:15 (1.2010 → 1.0280), the franc was 16.8% dearer (ECB data).

The video ends in 2025. Here is what has happened since.

US tariffs. From 7 August 2025 the US applied an additional 39% tariff to about 60% of Swiss exports to the US (Federal Council, 04.08.2025). On 14 November 2025 the two countries agreed on 15%; Swiss companies pledged to invest at least 200 billion dollars in the US (SECO). On 20 February 2026 the US Supreme Court ruled that the law on which these tariffs were based (IEEPA) gives no basis for them. A temporary 10% tariff and two new US investigations against Switzerland followed; since 24 July 2026 the tariff has been "up to 12.5%", and for pharmaceuticals since 31 July "a maximum of 15%". There is still no final agreement: "Negotiations with the US on a trade agreement are continuing," writes the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, SECO (SECO; tariff details — SECO, 17.08.2026).

UBS. Since the fall of Credit Suisse, Switzerland has one global big bank. On 22 April 2026 the Federal Council asked parliament to require that big banks' participations in foreign subsidiaries be backed "fully" with core capital — about 20 billion dollars more by the authorities' estimate (Federal Department of Finance). On 23 September 2026 the Council of States voted 29 to 16 for 90% coverage (swissinfo). The National Council has not yet decided; on 20 October Reuters wrote that its committee would take up the matter on 26 October. In the same report Reuters, citing anonymous sources, said the bank is preparing contingency plans, "including shifting its headquarters or merging with another lender" (Reuters via Manila Times). The country that sold trust in its banks is now arguing over whether its only big bank is too big for the country itself.

Voters. On 14 June 2026 voters rejected the Swiss People's Party (SVP) initiative "Keine 10-Millionen-Schweiz!" ("No 10-million Switzerland!"), which demanded keeping the permanent population below 10 million until 2050: 45.21% in favour, 54.79% against (official results; swissinfo). On 27 September, with 29.84% in favour and not a single canton, the initiative "Wahrung der schweizerischen Neutralität" ("Preserving Swiss neutrality") was rejected (official results). On 29 November there is a vote on amendments to the War Material Act. They would allow arms deliveries to 36 partner states even when these are in an armed conflict, and would no longer always require a declaration that the recipient will not re-export them (SECO). Swiss arms exports in 2025 were 948.2 million francs — about 43% more than a year earlier (SECO, 10.03.2026).

As early as 28 February 2022 the Federal Council adopted the EU sanctions against Russia (admin.ch).

The EU. The new package of agreements with the EU was signed in Brussels on 2 March 2026 (FDFA). The Council of States voted that the referendum will need a majority of both the people and the cantons (swissinfo); the National Council has not yet decided on this. No date for the vote has been set.

Money and growth. The SNB policy rate has been 0% since 20 June 2025 (SNB, 19.06.2025), and on 24 September 2026 it was left unchanged (SNB). Inflation in September: 1.0% (FSO). On 23 October one euro cost 0.9227 francs (ECB) — compared with the 2015 floor of 1.20, the franc is about 30% dearer against the euro. On 17 September SECO raised its 2026 growth forecast from 0.9% to 1.7% (SECO).

Both sides. Those who say the model is cracking point to Hong Kong, the UBS dispute, the instability of US tariffs and the fact that half of exports rest on one industry: in 2025 exports hit a record in money terms but fell 3.8% in real terms (FOCBS). Those who say it is holding point to the raised growth forecast, low inflation, a trade surplus of 54 billion francs in 2025 (FOCBS), first place in wealth per adult, and the fact that in 2026 voters rejected both a population cap and the neutrality initiative.

The video's thesis, "five hundred years, one product — security", is a good story, and the documents support its core: for centuries Switzerland really did sell things that needed no raw materials — soldiers, trustworthiness, precision, silence. But the story is too smooth. Neutrality did not arise from the "lesson" of 1515: it was first officially declared in 1674 and gained an international guarantee in 1815. The village did pay the passage to America, but about half of the emigrants were put on the list by compulsion. It was not the army that fired on the Gotthard strikers but a citizens' guard and volunteers, and the first shot came without an order. Basel's chemical industry grew partly because it was allowed to copy and to pollute. And in 2026 the key question is not whether Switzerland is rich — it is — but whether it can stay neutral, open and with a single big bank all at once.